> From: Weston Markham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>
> In the context of Monte Carlo, a win or loss by a large margin is
> quite likely (at least in any close game) to be due to large blunders.
> (For example, allowing a large, safe group of stones to be captured.)
> Given this, it does not make sense to weight it more strongly than
> any other win or loss. It would not even surprise me if a better
> evaluation could be obtained by _penalizing_ wins by greater margins.
> (Something like 100-k for a win and 100+k for a loss, exactly contrary
> to what you propose.)
>
> As a hopefully concrete example, consider the following 5x5 position,
> with black to play:
>
> .XO..
> .XOO.
> .XXOO
> XXXO.
> .XO.O
>
> Komi is such that black can win by taking and filling the ko.
>
> Black _could_ still capture the whole board, by playing on the
> upper-right corner, but only if white fails to defend its group. One
> needs to avoid making this move appear overly attractive, because the
> winning move does not win by such a large margin.
There's a huge difference ( perhaps hard for a monte carlo program to grok )
between "Against a skillful oponent, my group is provably dead no matter how I
try to defend it" and "My group is alive in a statistical sense, since there is
only one statistically improbable line of play which my opponent could use to
kill this group."
That "statistically improbable" line just happens to be the one which a
skillful opponent will latch on to, oddly enough.
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