On Thu, 2008-10-09 at 14:01 -0700, terry mcintyre wrote: > There's a huge difference ( perhaps hard for a monte carlo program to > grok ) between "Against a skillful oponent, my group is provably dead > no matter how I try to defend it" and "My group is alive in a > statistical sense, since there is only one statistically improbable > line of play which my opponent could use to kill this group."
If the computer thinks it's winning with a 90% score but loses, was the statistics right or wrong? Statistics are almost meaningless with one data sample point. You need to look at 10000 positions where it said 90% and see if it usually wins or loses if you want to evaluate their judgment. The opponent model a computer uses (the play-outs) is not based on an actual opponent (indeed, this is not possible because the computer may play a different opponent each time) so the scores returned should not be viewed as an actual winning probability. It's simply a self-consistent evaluation function which is imperfect, kind of like us humans. - Don > > That "statistically improbable" line just happens to be the one which > a skillful opponent will latch on to, oddly enough. >
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