On Jan 14, 2009, at 3:40 PM, Don Dailey wrote:
However, the best thing to do is to ignore that page and go the "Bayes
Rated" link which is updated every day. This is the total
performance
rating over all time of any player on CGOS. Everything is rated
together, even if you have only played 1 or 2 games but I do not
display
players with less than 20 games.
I see, I wasn't aware of that page. Doesn't it make sense then to
occasionally calibrate the ratings of the active programs with their
rating on this list?
There seems to be quite a difference between the rating of many
programs on that list compared to what the CGOS server shows while
playing. A difference of 100 points or more often. I'm particularly
surprised by the high rating of the MCTS-2K.v814 program after 349
games. Somehow an ELO of 1753 seems way too high for a program with
just 2,000 semi-light playouts, compared to a rating of 1340 of the
same program with 2,000 light playouts. Of course I introduced a few
improvements, but my own tests didn't indicate such a big difference.
Conversely, my tests show a 90% win-rate by the 32K version against
the 2K version. But the 32K version is only rated 2014 after some 600
games. According to your table I'd expect a 400 point difference
between the two.
Is it possible that after 350 games a program's 'bayeslo' rating is
off by 100-150 ELO points? Isn't that extremely unlikely, bordering on
the impossible?
Mark
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