On 31.01.2016 19:57, John Tromp wrote:
What is your best estimate of point where where chances are even?

I do not know.

what numbers the press could use that are not too arbitrary.

- The number P of legal positions.
- An empirical average number I of available intersections for the next move, where I needs to be determined before exposed to the press.
- The maximal number N of available intersections for the next move.
- An empirical average number X of moves in not resigned games, where X needs to be determined before exposed to the press. - The maximal number ca. 450 of moves in a practically occurring game [excluding neutral intersections, area scoring removals and virtual pass fights].
- The maximal number ca. P of moves in theory.
- The number of legal games is unknown. An explanation that at every move, all currently available, legal intersections must be considered and the upper bound is ca. N^P.

For the yellow press: "The number of 10^80 atoms in the universe is much smaller than the number 2 * 10^170 of possible positions, which is very much smaller than the uncountable number of possible different games."

--
robert jasiek
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