On Tue, Oct 05, 2010 at 04:28:40PM -0400, Álvaro Begué wrote: > > The correct way to evaluate an action is the expected value (yet > another name for the mean) of the utility function (there is a theorem > by Von Neumannand Morgenstern about this > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenstern_utility_theorem > ). Since we want to win the game, it makes sense to use a utility of 1 > for winning and 0 for losing, and this means that the probability of > winning should be maximized. As far as I can tell, the theory ends > there.
I agree that we should play the move that is most likely to win, given reasonable play from both parts (say, play that approximates theoretically best, with some errors thrown in). I do not necessarily agree that the theory quoted above says much about how to estimate this probability using more or less random playouts. Calculating the winning rate after each move, using a selective tree search and random simulations sounds like reasonable assumption, and it seems to work quite well, but that seems well outside the VNM theory. Just my simple 2 cents. -Heikki -- Heikki Levanto "In Murphy We Turst" heikki (at) lsd (dot) dk _______________________________________________ Computer-go mailing list [email protected] http://dvandva.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/computer-go
