Extrapolate for a national network.
OK, for a FiOS level network that can be leveraged as technology improves
with a 15-20 year time horizon, probably at least $300B. Based on our best
projections we're going to spend at least $35B in our footprint, which is
basically now the East coast corridor and parts of TX, CA, and FL.
We also figure that going for a Mercedes-level system would pay off in
the long term. Our competitors are going to face similar costs, but they
chose to go with lesser technologies.
One problem is take rate vs pass rate (pass rate is how many subscibers
have it available, take rate is how many of those actually buy the product).
The take/pass ratio is critical. You want it to be 100%, but experience
shows that it isn't. The report previously cited bears that out.
To put it in Tom terms, there are a boatload of people who can buy
iPhones but who don't for various reasons. Mainly cost considerations.
My challenge is to make the product so appealing to the passed that
they will become takes. And tilt the ratio toward eventual profitability.
That part isn't exactly my department, but that's the general strategy.
My optical network is a high-end state of the art product. If you are
happy with hamburger, why would you buy filet mignon, if you were
lucky to get the hamburger?
But if I can give you filet mignon at only slightly more than hamburger
prices, you'd be more likely to buy it. Obviously I never took a
marketing course. I didn't take an analogy course either, clearly.
What seems desirable to technocrats, on a purely theoretical level,
isn't immediately obvious to the politicians or their constituencies.
I have some connections out in the heartland. They are all ready
stretched financially and pissed off at the government. And Wall
Street in general. And people have also always hated "The Phone
Company."
So I'm number three on the hit list of a LOT of people. A few posts
ago you attributed erosion of liberty with the actions of unregulated
corporations. May be that's true. But I'm the most regulated
corporation in American history, with the possible exception of liquor
companies.
The have even been MOVIES that presented me as the villian. The
only worse fate would have been to be an Arab-American after 9/11.
So it's an uphill fight to do what's best. What do you do if you build
a baseball field and they DON'T come? From my POV you build it
anyway. It's the sensible thing to do.
It's the capitalist thing to do. Corporations live quarter to quarter,
capitalists invest for the future. I never expected a dime from the
government, anyway. The elected members turn over faster than
pancakes in an IHOP, they can't work together effectively, and that
is good and built into our system of government. It delays tyranny,
which was the intent.
Anyway, I have my problems and everyone else has theirs.
Sorry to take up your time if you bothered to read this far.
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