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g w wrote:
> 
> People can prove these things, and I believe they have been proven.
This is
> hardly the same as helmets on motorcyclists.  It is more like the people
who
> won't wear a seat belt in a car because they think they can't get it off
if
> they drive into a river, or the people who went nuts about their airbags
> because they might hurt them.  Dumb.  It is all a gamble, but some
people
> seem intent on not taking the best odds because something in their brain
is
> stuck on just one little scenario.


Yes, indeed.  These are probability statements.

The highway patrol has counted the bodies.

You KNOW the insurance companies have counted the bodies. _They_ know
which is the better bet. Have you watched to see what _their_ ads
encourage you to do?

In 100 scenarios, there are a few (WAG 5%) where having the seatbelt
makes a situation worse. 

There are, perhaps, 80% where having the seatbelt shoulder harness
leaves you uninjured or minimally injured where without the seatbelt you
would have been injured or killed.  Wearing the belts and avoiding the
injury is a very good thing in those very rare situations where there is
fire or water submergence -- you can unbuckle and get out.

In perhaps 10-15% of the scenarios, it just doesn't make a difference.

When I strap on my car or plane, I don't know what scenario will be
coming at me. I go with the best percentages.

I took advanced first aid with with the ski patrol. M.D.s, nurses and
EMTs in the ski patrol were then required (and maybe still are) to take
advanced first aid from a _ski_patrol_ instructor to be qualified.  They
expected the students to see compound fractures and ski-pole impalements
of limbs and torsos within a couple of weeks of the class and took it
VERY seriously.  As a diversion from ski-slope accidents, the instructor
discussed how to try to make an airway after a car accident victim's
head and face have impacted the steering wheel and/or dash. He also gave
us unauthorized advice how to make an airway in the throat if none could
be made in the mouth area. (It was unauthorized because at our level, we
weren't being trained enough to avoid cutting the adjacent veins or
arteries.)  But, as he pointed out, by this time they're dead anyway
unless you do this, so what the heck?

That discussion was vivid in my mind when I hit that guard rail at 55
mph in my Toyota.  The shoulder harness stopped my face about four (4)
inches short of the steering wheel.  No guarantees, but I bet this is
one of those (in the 80% group) where, if I had NOT had the seatbelt, I
would be dead, now. As it was, I didn't even have a bruise.

I got very interested in accidents after that and examined every vehicle
similar to mine I saw, after its accident.

One evening I watched for 20-30 minutes as the paramedics and firemen
extricated a guy crammed under his steering wheel, into the pedal well,
with multiple leg fractures, rib fractures, and more. The driver
screamed and whimpered a lot while they were working to get him out. The
passenger compartment was intact after the not-that-bad accident.

I chose a seat by the window of the restaurant for breakfast to watch as
they towed away a car which had hit the rear wheel set of a semi (from
the semi's side) at maybe 25-45 mph impact speed. The front end of the
sedan was banged in medium but the passenger compartment was fully
intact.  It put me off my feed when they brought the gurney, in no
particular hurry, and put the front passenger onto it, covered him/her
up fully with the sheet and drove away slowly with no flashing lights.
(As I left, I saw that there was windshield/dash board damage from the
head of the passenger.)

Yeah, It's a probability thing. The one bicycle accident I've had
involving head impact also had a very serious neck twist. If I'd had a
bicycle helmet, maybe it would have broken my neck. Don't know. I was
very lucky. But in bicycle and motorcycle accidents, the head injury
probabilities are, they tell me, about 10 times better with the helmet
than without. In my motorcycle days I wore the helmet. Will I wear a
helmet the next time I have a bicycle. You get one guess.

Am I going to go by the best bet?  Count on it!  When I play Russian
Roulette, and there's a choice, I want the gun with the fewer bullets,
thank you.

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