> Choate said:
> On 25 Apr 2001, Steve Mynott wrote:
>
> > Econometrics has completely failed as a predictive science and the
> > Austrian School has a trenchant critique of the whole idea of economic
> > "measurement".
>
> It's not even had a shot at solving the problems. The tools and the
> datasets are only just now coming into existance, let alone availability.
> Make that statement a hundred years from now (don't worry, odds are you'll
> be around).
that isn't true. don't you remember what happened to all the mathematicians
who were wired by brokerage firms in the late 80's and early 90's? what
about the 'surprise' mexico situation? econometrics is a minor tool for
economists and its close cousin (market momentum investment) have been
around for a very long time now. in fact i would bet you $1,000 that a
econometrician could study the variables available from 1971 - september
1987 and still could not predict what happens in october of 1987. (feel
free to substitute this period for any other period you wish.)
>
> > Economics is a political science and not a statistical one and the
> > whole macro/micro division artificial (essentially macro can be
> > identified directly with discredited Keynesianism)
>
> Economics is fundamentaly statistical.
ask an economist and he/she will disagree.
