On Wed, 25 Apr 2001, Phillip H. Zakas wrote:
> that isn't true. don't you remember what happened to all the mathematicians
> who were wired by brokerage firms in the late 80's and early 90's? what
> about the 'surprise' mexico situation? econometrics is a minor tool for
> economists and its close cousin (market momentum investment) have been
> around for a very long time now. in fact i would bet you $1,000 that a
> econometrician could study the variables available from 1971 - september
> 1987 and still could not predict what happens in october of 1987. (feel
> free to substitute this period for any other period you wish.)
Actualy it is. Econometrics is a science that has existed for about 30
years with respect to the tools, the collection of the datasets and an
infrastructure to use them effectively is only now possible.
Nobody else can predict definitively what would happen either, then or
now. So your challenge is worthless.
> > Economics is fundamentaly statistical.
>
> ask an economist and he/she will disagree.
Which is only one reason to ignore them.
Give the econometricians 200 years like the economists have had, fair is
fair.
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