-Caveat Lector-
In a message dated 99-05-11 19:54:40 EDT, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
>China can't do anything effective in retaliation,
Oh, I dunno ... I think it'd be a good time (what with a semi-secret
Chinese/N.Korean "mutual defense pact" in the offing) for China to (re)occupy
Taiwan with ground troops, justifying this action in the same manner as the
Serbs lay claim to Kosovo and NATO lays claim to whatever it wants despite
international law. If China did that, I think we could say equally, "the
US--" (or SEATO) "--can't do anything effective in retaliation."
I'm watching the E. Asian beat and posting anything noteworthy here, so I
hope you didn't miss the news that Japan has more or less agreed to turn a
blind eye to Chinese
actions vis-a-vis Taiwan -- yet the US is counting on Japan as being the
"enforcer" of US interests in Asia. Japan has its own interests which are
served by detente with China
in a manner somewhat different from US detente with China. The US is
employing its customary approach to possibly-nuclear N. Korea -- a big club
in one hand and a bagful of money in the other -- but that bargaining stance
falls apart if China extends the same giving hand with the other hand
supportive, not threatening. IMHO, it's a highly volatile
chessgame right now, and what the Balkans are for the Eastern Bloc (Serbs,
Russia et al) Korea is for the West -- the place most likely to be where the
shit hits the fan ...
And by shit, I mean an appalling mishmash of militaristic hybris,
desperation, political risk-taking, stupidity and incompetence in every
process, and an ideological/cultural stubbornness that overwhelms
rationality, such as we see at work in Kosovo. Starving nuclear-powered
Communists COULD exhibit all the predictability of some wounded, cornered
animal, prepared to die but unwilling to go down without taking others along
with it. If we've learned ANYTHING from past wars --forget the retrospective
glamorizing and glossing-over of motives, strategies, interests, etc., that's
passed off as "history"-- it's that "war fever" is a PATHOLOGICAL state,
wherein rational thinking and pragmatic behavior are the first casualties.
Once you're in the quicksand, you only go deeper ...
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