On Thursday, 27 December 2018 at 17:00:05 UTC, Robert M. Münch
wrote:
On 2018-12-22 21:38:42 +0000, Laeeth Isharc said:
On Saturday, 22 December 2018 at 18:47:40 UTC, Robert M. Münch
wrote:
On 2018-12-22 12:18:25 +0000, Mike Parker said:
Thanks to Symmetry Investments, DConf is heading to London!
We're still ironing out the details, but I've been sitting
on this for weeks and, now that we have a venue, I just
can't keep quiet about it any longer.
Hi, you should consider the upcoming Brexit chaos, which is
expect to have a high impact on all airlines. Currently I
wouldn't bet that all parties involved get things sorted out
until May...
I would be happy to bet they do. The EU and US are already
agreed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46380463
Well, we will see. But it's not the EU and US, but UK and US
that agreed after your reference. Since I'm not from the US
this information doesn't help a lot. And the significant part
of your reference is this: "Theresa May's Brexit agreement with
Brussels says that the UK and EU have agreed to negotiate a
"comprehensive air transport agreement" for UK-EU flights
during the planned transition period but it would not apply if
the UK left the EU without a deal. In September the government
warned a no-deal Brexit could cause disruption to air travel
between the UK and European Union countries."
You might be aware that the "No Deal Scenario" is currently
much more likely... but again, everyone is free to do what they
want.
In the event of no-deal, flights will continue as before except
UK operators flying _within_ Europe on domestic or intra-EU
flights will need to get a license. UK operators can continue to
fly to Europe, and we already said the European operators can fly
here. This is a relatively recent official confirmation of what
was always fairly obvious - a negotiating position is not quite
the same thing as the position in actuality.
http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/319768/updated-european-commission-reiterates-flights-will-go-ahead-post-brexit
You can read the technical guidance if you wish. Naturally it
comes with the spin you would expect.
And since flights to and from the EU will continue to operate, I
doubt very much that flights between Britain and anywhere else
will cease to operate.
Britain has a current account deficit with every European nation
bar Ireland and I think Malta, meaning we import more than we
export. The wilder scenarios painted assume that one of the two
parties would deliberately sabotage their own economy. I don't
think so.
I had lunch with a lawyer who advised Cameron and Osborne in
their negotiations with the EU. He has written five books on
Brexit, approaching it from a technical rather than political
perspective. He pioneered the suggestion of enhanced equivalence
which will likely be the roadmap for financial services. He says
Brexit consists of a multitude of small problems which will have
to be overcome by the people closest to them. But a no-deal
Brexit would be fine and quite quickly rather positive.
All of this stuff "if there is a no-deal Brexit, Theresa May
_could_ run out of insulin" - that word could is like nasal
demons in UB with C. It's a funny use of the word could - the
lawyer called the insulin suggestion an insult to the
intelligence. And my sister in law is a partner in a
pharmaceutical regulatory firm here in Germany where I write
from, and she agrees the suggestion is nonsense.
There's a lot of such stuff about, generated for partisan
reasons. The track record of such suggestions is pretty dire -
both Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England,and Paul
Krugman, a former trade economist, haha, suggested that the Bank
was damaging its reputation by making such political arguments.
So it's best to go to the primary sources and technical
documentation. There are more entertaining ways to scare oneself
if that's what one wants.
But flights will be running as good or bad as they ever do,as
best I can tell.
