On Thursday, 20 September 2018 at 10:02:05 UTC, Laurent Tréguier
wrote:
I apologize for the tone I'm using, I shouldn't jump on that
train.
I'll clarify my position on this: I'm not completely absolutely
sure that smartphones will kill the PC market, but I do think
it's a possibility that just can't be dismissed.
The PC market will change but dying is a big word.
PC sales have dropped over the years for multiple reasons:
* Adoption of smartphones and tablets
* PC hardware getting so powerful, that people have little reason
to upgrade
* Consoles taking over PC for couch gaming
But ...
PC are a integral part of our daily business life. This is a
market where PC decline is hard simply because the flexibility
that PCs offer.
You can do a lot with a smartphone and tablet but a lot of those
tasks are way harder or time consuming then doing them on a PC.
I can install termux on my phone but no way i will program for
hours on a 6" screen. Let alone all the IDE and debugging tools i
that are not available ( lets not start Vim discussions, thank
you very much ).
You can attach a keyboard to your phone, a bigger screen to your
phone and you have half a PC. But you are still missing the
software...
We will probably move to a hybrid solution like this in the
future, where people can use their smartphones as PCs ( with
attachments for productivity ) but its a LONG road to get even
close to the same level that a basic PC offers in terms of power
and flexibility.
A smartphone is nothing else then a smaller tablet, what is
nothing else then a less flexible laptop, what is nothing else
then a compacter and not flexible PC.
Just basic concept like multi windows handling is like a alien
idea on smartphones and badly done. Even Windows 3.1 was more
capable on this part. Currently smartphones are not designed for
the creativity and flexibility you need.
Can they become this? Sure ... but not with the current mobile
operating systems. Android is a resource hog ( JVM thank you very
much ) that uses more memory then my Windows 10 installation
while offering less flexibility! Microsoft tried and fell flat on
their face.
Its possible we may see devices that are plenty powerful to do
day to day tasks and see PCs become specialized tools requiring
(high paid) experts. But smartphones will always be limited with
cooling and power usage compared to a full blown pc. The only way
to mitigate this is by having servers offload intensive tasks.
I do not see PCs dying out, just changing in nature. A smartphone
is a PC, just one that is less flexible and is power limited
because of its size. And that law will always be true. If you can
put X power in a small device, you can put X * 10 in a bigger
device, you can put X * 100 in a even bigger device.
And do not be so sure that ARM is the future... I have several
NUCs around here and those things are darn powerful ( think 8
year old PC ) these days, with a very low power usage ( 6W ). And
Risk-V is coming up...
The PC world as we know, never stops changing. But predictions
that X will die are wrong. They simply evolve. A
Smartphone/Tablet is a PC, so anybody making claims how PCs are
dying, is simply stating that PCs are simple evolving into
different forms.
And by the way, smartphone sales are also starting to plateau
because people are less fast on replacing their phones these
days. If it was not for the battery dying on people, people will
hold on for years these days. Wait until we have electric cars
and those batteries *ha*... forced redundant, you bet your ass on
it. So do not be so happy about PCs changing because the change
is not in the interest of the consumer. No reuse, forced
redundancy, ... Great for companies, bad for consumers like us.
