So, I take it a Bayesian can say, "the null hypothesis is only P=0.0372 likely to be true", or something to that effect? Instead of frequencists saying "Assuming the null hypothesis is true, the observed difference was 3.72% likely to occur due to random sampling error".
Must be nice.... Cheers, Shane > -----Original Message----- > From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Anon. > Sent: Monday, February 27, 2006 3:20 PM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: The Earth is round (B<0.5) > > > DeSolla,Shane [Burlington] wrote: > > >Shouldn't it be, "The Earth is round (B<.05)"? > > > >After all, the null hypothesis would be that the Earth was > round, and > >rejecting it would give you, "The Earth is not round (P<.05)" > > > >According to Cohen, you can only accept a null hypothesis to > be true if > >the power was high enough to detect the smallest relevant > effect size. > >Thus, if the Earth did not differ significantly from being > round, and > >you had a high enough power to detect a relevant degree of > "roundness", > >then you could declare the Earth was round (Power = 0.95, or > B = 0.05; > >or whatever your acceptable cutoff for power). The p, of > course, would > >be bigger than 0.05, or whatever value of alpha you are using. > > > >Although I am not worthy enough of statistics to comment on > this, some > >statisticians say you should never use a P-value. But that is for > >Bayesians to comment upon... > > > > > > > It's one of those amusing little ironies that makes the world > what it is > that Bayesians are so associated with anti-P-valueism. I think it's > fair to say that most applied statisticians know the problems with > p-values, but this knowledge hasn't perculated down far > enough yet. The > irony here is that what most people think a p-value is is > actually the > Bayesian version. > > Before I start ranting, I'll pass on this link to a selection > of short > articles about stats, aimed at medics but still useful: > <http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~mb55/pubs/pbstnote.htm> > Have fun! > > Bob > > -- > Bob O'Hara > Department of Mathematics and Statistics > P.O. Box 68 (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2b) > FIN-00014 University of Helsinki > Finland > > Telephone: +358-9-191 51479 > Mobile: +358 50 599 0540 > Fax: +358-9-191 51400 > WWW: http://www.RNI.Helsinki.FI/~boh/ > Journal of Negative Results - EEB: www.jnr-eeb.org >
