see http://www.warsocialism.com/duncan_tscq_07.pdf for the text of this discussion.
Folks -- I do not post this reference lightly, and just discovered the updated analysis of well-defined and transparent empirical data by Richard Clark Duncan this evening. Duncan is an energy specialist of national, if not international repute who has for years been an invited speaker at important meetings and symposia in his field. His thesis, based on analysis of indisputable empirical data as he openly describes and invites for review, is that industrial civilization (which defines in a formula based on per capita energy consumption) will last approximately one hundred years (starting in 1930). He analyzes relevant data with full transparency, and predicts by a startling graph how civilization will climax and then end after fallling off a steep cliff he calls the Olduvai Clilff. In short, he predicts in his updated, well-explained discussion at the website mentioned above, that industrial civlization will end by 2030 and the terminal phase (the falling off the cliff) will begin in 2008! I do not know if his predictions will prove accurate -- I hope not! But they are the work of a serious professional with full transparency and long-term invitation to doubters to disprove or dispute. The data is startling. You will find mention in the document of ecology of the earth in relation to human overpopulation. The website is owned by Jay Hanson, who formerly owned and operated a website called Dieoff.org and whose new website carries forth his own predication that society will crash in the next ten to fifteen years and end in nuclear holocaust. This is in contrast to Duncan's prediction that society will collapse due to failure of the electrical grid with terminal blackouts leading to societal collapse. Hanson's work is largely a matter of opinion based on evolution and culture of man, whereas Duncan's work is based on analysis of empirical historical and ongoing data, which has been updated periodically since he first began discussing the Olduvai Gorge theory of the end of industrial civilation in the 1990's. Read and weep or read and laugh if you disagree! But the thesis involved is literally a life or death matter for billions of humans in the relatively short term. Stan Moore San Geronimo, CA [EMAIL PROTECTED] _________________________________________________________________ Get a FREE Web site, company branded e-mail and more from Microsoft Office Live! http://clk.atdmt.com/MRT/go/mcrssaub0050001411mrt/direct/01/
