Bill, I have been following this issue for several years, and I think you have missed the point. The ultimate results of the coming crisis - lower consumption, increased efficiency, sustainable living, etc. - are good things. But the timing is the problem. We no longer have time to make a neat and orderly transition. How we (society and governments) respond will determine the difference between chaos and some semblance of order. Either way there will be much pain.
I don't think Duncan's Olduvai Theory is the best model, or fully explained, but there are others and the data that are available are hard to refute. We have wasted 30 years and now we are in for trouble. I hope the attention the issue is now getting will spur some positive action instead of invading more oil-rich countries. Joe Gathman > From: "William R. Porter" > I have some difficulty with Duncan's assumptions. He > posits the rise and > fall of civilization in general based on a rise and > fall of energy spent > per capita (e). This assumes that his 'industrial > civilization' and high > 'e' is some sort of evolutionary high point, > reflecting civilization's > highest moral and ethical values and standard of > living. This is quite a > reach; so-called industrial civilization may just be > a relatively > energy-inefficient and high consumption per capita > phase, following > which the 'e' will drop off as energy efficiencies > rise and energy > economics necessitate less consumption. So what? > These are good things, > unless he is advocating rampant consumerism and > waste. His further > predictions of a great decrease in population and > the necessity for > sustainable living practices are also good things, > so again, where's the > problem? I think a better measure of human progress > than 'e' might be > the realized 'technology per capita', which would > include and facilitate > things like sophisticated health care, > communications, and economic > empowerment. ____________________________________________________________________________________ It's here! Your new message! Get new email alerts with the free Yahoo! Toolbar. http://tools.search.yahoo.com/toolbar/features/mail/
