Wayne,
You ware wanting the kind of data that nobody has really had the chance
to gather yet. Have you seen Stuart Pimm's book, "The World According
to Pimm"? That would be a very good start. But, you are talking about
data on a global scale - almost no research has been funded on that
large a scale, long enough to actually bring together so much. So,
there are data from a lot of disparate sources, and logic (the logic of
how CO2, and other gases, work as a greenhouse gas, for example). Also,
there is some hubris in thinking that we can actually fine tune
something that is so large, when we can't even predict the weather a
week in advance. Hence the problem with having a data supported and
fully referenced study.
Jim
Wayne Tyson wrote on 30-Mar-09 20:56:
Ecolog:
Can anyone refer me to data-supported and fully-referenced studies
(rather than opinions) that define the balance (percent, ratio) of
direct and indirect anthropogenic and non-human sources/causes of the
various climate-changing factors (listed) together with mitigating
factors and how they influence trends in climate change in terms of
fluctuations and long-term trends of what might be called "greenhouse"
and "nuclear winter" consequences? Such studies should be clearly
enough presented that anyone, "scientist" or "non-scientist," should
be able to understand the conclusions and their foundations at any
level and be able to follow the logic back through the analysis to the
raw data.
While I am influenced by what percent of "scientists" believe, I am
only provisionally influence by such broad numbers and tend to be more
impressed by qualitative than quantitative assessments (WHICH
scientists, and their credibility) of that kind. Still, I am far more
interested in the "hard" science and its scholarly but clear
presentation, together with all the relevant "ifs," "ands," and "buts"
than I am in a rather confusing tangle of claims.
WT
PS: As a matter of common sense, we non-experts can kinda get it that
human activity causes all kinds of damage to all kinds of systems,
including the climate system. But we get real confused because of the
scale and complexity of the relevant factors and the dynamic nature of
systems and the potential for shifts in trends. We also can kinda get
it that the anthropogenic part is BIG, but we have trouble getting a
handle on how big in comparison to all the other climate-change
factors and modulating effects and processes. Finally, we've been
misled so much that we are suspicious of band wagons and fads as a
genre. We realize that those who challenge the dominant view can be
hucksters and cranks, but we also seem to remember that The
Authorities have often turned out to be wrong throughout history and
that challengers tend to get burned at the stake.
----- Original Message ----- From: "Jeremy Claisse" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Monday, February 16, 2009 10:50 PM
Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] Reference for % of scientists that think
climate change is caused by humans?
Turns out there a several good references listed on wikipedia under
global warming controversy.
Thank you to those who already responded.
-----Original Message-----
From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news on behalf of
Jeremy Claisse
Sent: Mon 2/16/2009 7:53 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [ECOLOG-L] Reference for % of scientists that think climate
change is caused by humans?
My brother (who works in marketing) recently sent me the e-mail below. I
don't intend this to turn into a discussion of the general public's
understanding of uncertainty in science, I am just wondering if anyone
is aware of a study that looked at the percentage of scientists that
think climate change is caused primarily by anthropogenic factors vs.
entirely a natural cycle.
Thanks.
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