Hi, Bill H. and Ecologers:
I accept the scientific evidence that global warming is occurirng,
but I think we should be careful about pointing to various
warmer-than-usual events and saying, "Aha, evidence for global warming!" I
don't think doing so is statistically valid, and here's an analogy to
illustrate my reasoning.
Suppose you had an "honest" coin, which after thousands of flips
averaged coming up heads 50% of the time and tails 50%. Now suppose we
file the rim of the coin on one side to affect its aerodynamics, and after
thousands more flips we find the ratio is now 49% to 51% in favor of tails.
This shows the affect of our tampering, just as melting glaciers and other
evidence COLLECTIVELY indicate global warming. However, you can't point to
any one case in which the tossed coin came up tails and say "See, our
filing did that." Similarly, a record warm March on the east coast COULD
happen during a long-term cooling trend, just as a lopsided run of "tails"
coin tosses could have occurred before we filed the edges.
Recognizing this distinction between collective evidence and single
data points is important, not just a quibble. After all, climate-change
deniers can comb through data and find some event in the past that is
warmer than some carefully chosen but corresponding event in the present
and say, "Aha, cooling! The data does not support global warming!"
Martin M. Meiss
2012/4/5 Bill Hilton Jr. (RESEARCH) <[email protected]>
> The month of March 2012 was incredibly warm--both day and night--and
> Mother Nature seemed to respond. Plants and animals of various species
> showed activity ahead of what the calendar usually dictates, so there may
> be some long-term effects. To view our photo essay about this phenomenon
> and some of the organisms involved, please visit our "This Week at Hilton
> Pond" installment for 19-31 March 2012 at
> http://www.hiltonpond.org/ThisWeek120319.html
>
> While there, don't forget to scroll down for a list of birds banded and
> recaptured, including a rather old American Goldfinch.
>
> Happy (Spring) Nature watching!
>
> BILL
>
>
>
> =========
>
> RESEARCH PROGRAM
> c/o BILL HILTON JR. Executive Director
> Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History
> 1432 DeVinney Road, York, South Carolina 29745 USA
> office & cell (803) 684-5852
> fax (803) 684-0255
>
> Please visit our web sites (courtesy of Comporium.net):
> Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History at
> http://www.hiltonpond.org
> "Operation RubyThroat: The Hummingbird Project" at
> http://www.rubythroat.org
>
> ==================
>
