MARTIN . . . Thanks for your note. I don't think I said that the warmer-than-usual spring is a result of global warming. ;-)
By saying "Curmudgeonly humans may deny climate change is upon us, but watching and listening to Mother Nature leads us to the truth" I'm suggesting we collect the evidence to find out what's really going on. Best wishes, BILL ========= On Apr 5, 2012, at 7:06 PM, Martin Meiss wrote: > Hi, Bill H. and Ecologers: > > I accept the scientific evidence that global warming is occurirng, > but I think we should be careful about pointing to various warmer-than-usual > events and saying, "Aha, evidence for global warming!" I don't think doing > so is statistically valid, and here's an analogy to illustrate my reasoning. > > Suppose you had an "honest" coin, which after thousands of flips > averaged coming up heads 50% of the time and tails 50%. Now suppose we file > the rim of the coin on one side to affect its aerodynamics, and after > thousands more flips we find the ratio is now 49% to 51% in favor of tails. > This shows the affect of our tampering, just as melting glaciers and other > evidence COLLECTIVELY indicate global warming. However, you can't point to > any one case in which the tossed coin came up tails and say "See, our filing > did that." Similarly, a record warm March on the east coast COULD happen > during a long-term cooling trend, just as a lopsided run of "tails" coin > tosses could have occurred before we filed the edges. > > Recognizing this distinction between collective evidence and single > data points is important, not just a quibble. After all, climate-change > deniers can comb through data and find some event in the past that is warmer > than some carefully chosen but corresponding event in the present and say, > "Aha, cooling! The data does not support global warming!" > > > Martin M. Meiss > > 2012/4/5 Bill Hilton Jr. (RESEARCH) <[email protected]> > The month of March 2012 was incredibly warm--both day and night--and Mother > Nature seemed to respond. Plants and animals of various species showed > activity ahead of what the calendar usually dictates, so there may be some > long-term effects. To view our photo essay about this phenomenon and some of > the organisms involved, please visit our "This Week at Hilton Pond" > installment for 19-31 March 2012 at > http://www.hiltonpond.org/ThisWeek120319.html > > While there, don't forget to scroll down for a list of birds banded and > recaptured, including a rather old American Goldfinch. > > Happy (Spring) Nature watching! > > BILL ========= RESEARCH PROGRAM c/o BILL HILTON JR. Executive Director Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History 1432 DeVinney Road, York, South Carolina 29745 USA office & cell (803) 684-5852 fax (803) 684-0255 Please visit our web sites (courtesy of Comporium.net): Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History at http://www.hiltonpond.org "Operation RubyThroat: The Hummingbird Project" at http://www.rubythroat.org ==================
