Hi, I agree. Climate change comes as a package of various factors and should be viewed as such. We should not look at it in a reductionist view. A reductionist view would be wrong regarding science and gives deniers a platform to point out certain events. Just my two cents.
Best, Moritz 2012/4/5 Martin Meiss <[email protected]> > Hi, Bill H. and Ecologers: > > I accept the scientific evidence that global warming is occurirng, > but I think we should be careful about pointing to various > warmer-than-usual events and saying, "Aha, evidence for global warming!" I > don't think doing so is statistically valid, and here's an analogy to > illustrate my reasoning. > > Suppose you had an "honest" coin, which after thousands of flips > averaged coming up heads 50% of the time and tails 50%. Now suppose we > file the rim of the coin on one side to affect its aerodynamics, and after > thousands more flips we find the ratio is now 49% to 51% in favor of tails. > This shows the affect of our tampering, just as melting glaciers and other > evidence COLLECTIVELY indicate global warming. However, you can't point to > any one case in which the tossed coin came up tails and say "See, our > filing did that." Similarly, a record warm March on the east coast COULD > happen during a long-term cooling trend, just as a lopsided run of "tails" > coin tosses could have occurred before we filed the edges. > > Recognizing this distinction between collective evidence and single > data points is important, not just a quibble. After all, climate-change > deniers can comb through data and find some event in the past that is > warmer than some carefully chosen but corresponding event in the present > and say, "Aha, cooling! The data does not support global warming!" > > > Martin M. Meiss > > 2012/4/5 Bill Hilton Jr. (RESEARCH) <[email protected]> > > > The month of March 2012 was incredibly warm--both day and night--and > > Mother Nature seemed to respond. Plants and animals of various species > > showed activity ahead of what the calendar usually dictates, so there may > > be some long-term effects. To view our photo essay about this phenomenon > > and some of the organisms involved, please visit our "This Week at Hilton > > Pond" installment for 19-31 March 2012 at > > http://www.hiltonpond.org/ThisWeek120319.html > > > > While there, don't forget to scroll down for a list of birds banded and > > recaptured, including a rather old American Goldfinch. > > > > Happy (Spring) Nature watching! > > > > BILL > > > > > > > > ========= > > > > RESEARCH PROGRAM > > c/o BILL HILTON JR. Executive Director > > Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History > > 1432 DeVinney Road, York, South Carolina 29745 USA > > office & cell (803) 684-5852 > > fax (803) 684-0255 > > > > Please visit our web sites (courtesy of Comporium.net): > > Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History at > > http://www.hiltonpond.org > > "Operation RubyThroat: The Hummingbird Project" at > > http://www.rubythroat.org > > > > ================== > > > -- Moritz S. Schmid, M.Sc./M.I.N.C. student -EWHALE lab-, Biology and Wildlife Dept., Institute of Arctic Biology, 419 IRVING I, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7000 Integrated bi-national Master of International Nature Conservation (M.I.N.C.<http://www.uni-goettingen.de/de/74269.html>) Details: Centre for Nature Conservation (CNC <http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/79999.html>), Faculty of Biology, University of Göttingen, Germany and Isaac Centre for Nature Conservation (ICNC<http://www.lincoln.ac.nz/Research-at-Lincoln/Research-centres/Isaac-Centre-for-Nature-Conservation/>), Faculty of Environment, Society and Design, Lincoln, Christchurch, New Zealand Email: [email protected] Work: 907-474-7959 Cell: 907-301-6867
