336=28000*(0.62*0.1+0.5*0.9)-14000
Robert Chung wrote:
>
> How did you get these numbers? I would have thought that if your
> V was 0.1, your delta would be 672. If my understanding is
> correct, your've underestimated the effect by about 2, and
> the crossover V is around .15. Do I misunderstand your model?
>
> I actually have an opinion on the likelihood of hand counts
> being able to produce an additional thousand votes for Gore,
> but since this is a stat discussion and not a political one
> I'm going to refrain from sharing it.
>
> --Robert Chung
>
> "Bob Wheeler" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
> > Undervotes are represented by vote cards which
> > have no punches for a presidential candidate -- at
> > least none that were detected by tabulating
> > machines. It is reported that there are some 28000
> > of these in the three contentious Florida
> > counties.
> >
> > Because these counties seem to have favored Gore
> > more than Bush (by 69%,54% and 64%), the Democrats
> > believe that manual inspection of these cards will
> > result in votes for Gore. The Republicans fear
> > this. Is there any statistical justification for
> > these views?
> >
> > There are two possibilities: (A) a vote was
> > attempted; (B) no vote was attempted. Let us
> > assume that for (A) the probability of a Gore vote
> > is 0.62, and 0.50 for (B), then if V is the
> > proportion of the 28000 corresponding to (A), one
> > has the mean vote for Gore being
> > 28000(0.62V+0.50(1-V)), and similarly one can
> > obtain a SD. One finds:
> > V Delta
> > 0 0
> > 0.1 336
> > 0.2 692
> > 0.3 1008
> > where Delta is the incremental number of votes for
> > Gore. Since the SD in all cases is about 84 votes,
> > it may be seen that V must be in the neighborhood
> > of 0.3 before Gore will pick up enough votes to
> > overcome the 960 vote lead of Bush.
> >
> > Is this likely? Early results from the counts seem
> > to suggest it is not.
--
Bob Wheeler --- (Reply to: [EMAIL PROTECTED])
ECHIP, Inc.
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