In addition to being unable to spell "fallacy," I
can't do arithmetic. Chung is right. The formula
is 28000*0.24*V, which is 672 for V=0.1.
It might be better to add a multiplicative
parameter to remove from the 28000 the genuine "no
vote" totals. Thus one has 28000*H*0.24*V, from
which one can get anything one wants depending on
one's political persuasion. Since Broward now
seems to be reporting 90 additional votes for Gore
with about half the precincts counted, it appears
that either H is large or V is small. But Rich
Ulrich offers other evidence.
Bob Wheeler wrote:
>
> 336=28000*(0.62*0.1+0.5*0.9)-14000
>
> Robert Chung wrote:
> >
> > How did you get these numbers? I would have thought that if your
> > V was 0.1, your delta would be 672. If my understanding is
> > correct, your've underestimated the effect by about 2, and
> > the crossover V is around .15. Do I misunderstand your model?
> >
> > I actually have an opinion on the likelihood of hand counts
> > being able to produce an additional thousand votes for Gore,
> > but since this is a stat discussion and not a political one
> > I'm going to refrain from sharing it.
> >
> > --Robert Chung
> >
> > "Bob Wheeler" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> > [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
> > > Undervotes are represented by vote cards which
> > > have no punches for a presidential candidate -- at
> > > least none that were detected by tabulating
> > > machines. It is reported that there are some 28000
> > > of these in the three contentious Florida
> > > counties.
> > >
> > > Because these counties seem to have favored Gore
> > > more than Bush (by 69%,54% and 64%), the Democrats
> > > believe that manual inspection of these cards will
> > > result in votes for Gore. The Republicans fear
> > > this. Is there any statistical justification for
> > > these views?
> > >
> > > There are two possibilities: (A) a vote was
> > > attempted; (B) no vote was attempted. Let us
> > > assume that for (A) the probability of a Gore vote
> > > is 0.62, and 0.50 for (B), then if V is the
> > > proportion of the 28000 corresponding to (A), one
> > > has the mean vote for Gore being
> > > 28000(0.62V+0.50(1-V)), and similarly one can
> > > obtain a SD. One finds:
> > > V Delta
> > > 0 0
> > > 0.1 336
> > > 0.2 692
> > > 0.3 1008
> > > where Delta is the incremental number of votes for
> > > Gore. Since the SD in all cases is about 84 votes,
> > > it may be seen that V must be in the neighborhood
> > > of 0.3 before Gore will pick up enough votes to
> > > overcome the 960 vote lead of Bush.
> > >
> > > Is this likely? Early results from the counts seem
> > > to suggest it is not.
>
> --
> Bob Wheeler --- (Reply to: [EMAIL PROTECTED])
> ECHIP, Inc.
--
Bob Wheeler --- (Reply to: [EMAIL PROTECTED])
ECHIP, Inc.
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