Gene Gallagher wrote:
> exist for obtaining these estimates and propagating the error. The CNN
> article cites Peyton Young's 1 in 3 odds of a Gore victory, but even
> Judge Sauls would have to conclude that 1 in 3 is a "reasonable
> probability."
``Reasonable probability'' in ordinary use means something pretty near one.
A thought experiment: suppose elections were conducted by random sampling
a single ballot. Then a recount gives the loser in an equal race a 50%
chance of winning.
How would a contesting of the election go? Perhaps sample-draw 20 ballots
and find they're all for the loser. Then there's a ``reasonable probability''
that the loser would win a new count, and an official random draw of another
single ballot is done. But anything in line with an equal race would
not provoke a recount.
--
Ron Hardin
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
On the internet, nobody knows you're a jerk.
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