> I thought that "fantasy football" was more-or-less a > venue for gambling; and that sort of gambling is popular > with people who deny the odds -- that is, the folks who > like it are (especially) the same folks who imagine that > they personally would be able to predict outcomes, if they > were just a little luckier. >
Thanks to all for the book recommendations, I'll definitely check those out. I've read Tufte's book, which I enjoyed. Regardless of whether FFL is gambling (I personally don't play for money, many do) you raise an interesting point about whether Fantasy Football is just a matter of predicting outcomes. Since the value of a player is determined before the games are played (as opposed to Strat-O-Matic baseball where you use the previous season's stats) you are attempting to predict the future. I've seen quite a few statistical studies that address the topic "can previous history help us project future player statistics". That question is asked on an individual level (How many TDs will Priest Holmes score this year?) and a general level (How many more yards will the 5th best WR have than the 25th best?) I'm not convinced that statistics can help us much there - it seems that each year is extremely variable. However, I think statistical analysis has more to teach us about the best way to build a team, based on projected stats. FFL orginally was about the art of building the best team, but with certain assumptions put in place, I think it can be a science. And believe me, there are plenty of variables (injuries, free agency) that keep FFL very interesting year after year. (Just ask the millions of FFL owners that spend hundreds of hours crunching the numbers every year.) . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
