I haed a student who did a class project in DoE by analyzing what must have been an early version of Fantasy Football. His prediction was confirmed; however the residual error term was quite large.
Jay [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > > I thought that "fantasy football" was more-or-less a > > venue for gambling; and that sort of gambling is popular > > with people who deny the odds -- that is, the folks who > > like it are (especially) the same folks who imagine that > > they personally would be able to predict outcomes, if they > > were just a little luckier. > > > > Thanks to all for the book recommendations, I'll definitely check > those out. I've read Tufte's book, which I enjoyed. > > Regardless of whether FFL is gambling (I personally don't play for > money, many do) you raise an interesting point about whether Fantasy > Football is just a matter of predicting outcomes. Since the value of > a player is determined before the games are played (as opposed to > Strat-O-Matic baseball where you use the previous season's stats) you > are attempting to predict the future. > > I've seen quite a few statistical studies that address the topic "can > previous history help us project future player statistics". That > question is asked on an individual level (How many TDs will Priest > Holmes score this year?) and a general level (How many more yards will > the 5th best WR have than the 25th best?) I'm not convinced that > statistics can help us much there - it seems that each year is > extremely variable. > > However, I think statistical analysis has more to teach us about the > best way to build a team, based on projected stats. FFL orginally was > about the art of building the best team, but with certain assumptions > put in place, I think it can be a science. > > And believe me, there are plenty of variables (injuries, free agency) > that keep FFL very interesting year after year. (Just ask the > millions of FFL owners that spend hundreds of hours crunching the > numbers every year.) > . > . > ================================================================= > Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the > problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: > . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . > ================================================================= -- Jay Warner Principal Scientist Warner Consulting, Inc. 4444 North Green Bay Road Racine, WI 53404-1216 USA Ph: (262) 634-9100 FAX: (262) 681-1133 email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.a2q.com The A2Q Method (tm) -- What do you want to improve today? . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
