In a message dated 11/9/98 12:17:49 AM Pacific Standard Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: << Can anybody tell me why the president's party always (historically speaking) loses seats at the polls in an off-year? Why is this?>> There are several reasons: 1. During the presidential election year, the winning President usually has enough "coattails" to help some Congressional candidates from his party to win in close races. In other words, some set of voters decide that, if they're going to vote for X for President and he's a Republican, they might as well also vote for the Republican Congressional candidate. Two years later, though, the incumbents in those swing districts don't have the benefit of the popular figure at the top of the ticket . . . and are therefore more likely to lose. Newt Gingrich accurately pointed out that this factor couldn't play out very well for Republicans in '98 because the GOP won so many swing districts in '94 and didn't lose that many of them during the Presidential year of '96. In other words, from the GOP perspective, there weren't many more swing districts to pick up in '98. (That didn't stop Newt from making the stupid prediction that the GOP could pick up 30 House seats, though.) 2. Many political observers believe that voters tend to be more motivated by voting "against" something or someone than voting "for" something or someone. Thus, the theory goes, in off-year elections where turnout is invariably lower than in Presidential election years, voters supporting the out-of-power party will be more motivated to turn out to vote, because they have something to be "against". (Even if that something they're against is "change" . . . as, arguably, was the case this year.) -- K.D. Weinert
