<< There are well-known cases where exit polls get the margins wrong (e.g. Phillipines 2004) or even the results wrong (e.g. USA 2004). It is extremely hard to correct for sampling error in exit polling, making the overall polling accuracy comparable to certain alternatives such as phone polls. For electoral results, both of those are significantly more accurate than, for example, random polling in other public places. Michael Poole >>
It is far from certain that 2004 US exit polls got the results of the presidential election wrong. Many well-qualified polling experts and statisticians who have studied the polls and the official election results believe there is a strong likelihood that the exit poll results were correct and the official results were incorrect because of widespread fraud or at least unintended error. None of the efforts to explain the polling results in terms of sampling and other kinds of errors, including efforts by the people who designed and conducted the polls, have been very persuasive. Unfortunately, the kinds of post-election investigations that could have shed much needed light on this question were not done or were greatly delayed because the losing candidate, John Kerry, conceded the election less than 24 hours after the polls were closed without demanding that serious investigations be conducted and without doing any himself, despite having something like $20 million of unspent campaign contributions on hand (twice the amount spent on the exit polls themselves) that he could have used to keep his earlier promise to make sure that every vote would be counted. Reportedly, even Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, was upset with Kerry's quick concession, which also had the effect of discouraging reporters from seriously investigating the election results and the possibility of widespread fraud. Kerry's quick concession had the additional effect of enabling news organizations and pundits to dismiss people who questioned the election results as irresponsible "conspiracy theorists." It now appears that the most irresponsible people of all (except for those who may have engaged in election fraud) were Kerry and news media people and that the hypothesis that the election was stolen as a result of fraud is a very reasonable one that is supported by at least as much evidence as the theory that the exit polls were incorrect. -Ralph Suter ---- election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
