Dear Greg, you wrote (25 Nov 2008):
> While complete ballot data is ideal, I think a convincing > case as to how a voting method might perform in a particular > election can sometimes be made from polling data. For example, > there's good exit polling data for the Senate race in Minnesota > that's being recounted, showing that supporters of the > Independence party candidate would have preferred Al Franken > over Norm Coleman by a 5% margin. That would have given Franken > at least another 20,000 votes, way more than the 215 votes he > trailed by pre-recount. I think that's a pretty good case that > IRV would have selected Franken, regardless of the results of > the plurality recount. Then what do you say about the opinion polls that said that Bayrou was a clear Condorcet winner in the 2007 French presidential elections (although IRV would have chosen Sarkozy)?: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2007#Before_first_round_of_vote Markus Schulze ---- Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
