On Nov 25, 2008, at 1:07 PM, Kevin Venzke wrote:
Hi Jonathan,
--- En date de : Mar 25.11.08, Jonathan Lundell <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
a écrit :
It's not an unreasonable
conjecture that Bayrou would have gotten a larger percentage
of first choices (some from Sarkozy and Royal) under IRV.
Could you explain this viewpoint?
The Wikipedia article doesn't give us the actual poll questions, but I
take them to be something like "which candidate do you intend to vote
for". So the answers need to be interpreted in the context of the
first round of a TTR election in which polling suggests that the front-
runners are Royal and Sarkozy. The actual results of the first round
are consistent with that interpretation.
In that context, how many voters whose sincere first choice was some
other candidate (including Bayrou) were strategically voting for
Sarkozy or Royal? We simply don't know, and I merely assert that we
can't assume that the votes in the first round of a TTR election are
identical to the first choices in an IRV election.
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