Jonathan Lundell wrote:
In that case it might be a good starting point to define "spoiler",
so we know what we've found when we find it.
What's an example of an IRV spoiler who's not a "pretty strong
candidate"?
A very abstract concept of spoiler might be: denote f(X) the minimal
number of ballot changes/additions required to make X the winner. Then a
spoiler is a candidate with a high f-value relative to the number of
ballots (thus "hard to get to win"), who, by his presence, still changes
who wins.
Determining f(x) for the various candidates would be very hard, though,
and one also runs into the question of what threshold to say "above this
f-value, spoiler, below it, not a spoiler".
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