I believe that the DemoChoice numbers you cite are from the first
results file, released on November 5. The data below was released on
November 10 and includes nearly all of the ballots (although the audit
hasn't started yet). You are correct that my totals for Quan and Perata
should match the final round totals, and they do match the November 10
final round totals. See here:
http://www.acgov.org/rov/rcv/results/rcvresults_2984.htm
--Bob Richard
On 11/13/2010 10:31 AM, robert bristow-johnson wrote:
On Nov 13, 2010, at 1:20 PM, Bob Richard wrote:
On 11/13/2010 8:09 AM, Kristofer Munsterhjelm wrote:
Sand W wrote:
Here are the results on an actual election:
http://www.demochoice.org/dcresults.php?poll=OakMayor&type=table
<http://www.demochoice.org/dcresults.php?poll=OakMayor&type=table>
Perata (or maybe someone in his camp) accuses the other candidates
of "gaming the system" by promoting each other as 2nd choices.
Some challengers tried to do that to IRV-leader Kriss Worthington
too, but he won by a landslide.
Unfortunately, there isn't enough data here to check who would won
under other methods, except for Plurality (where Don Perata would
have won). To find out the social order for a Condorcet method, one
would need the Condorcet matrix, and for most other methods, the raw
ballot data itself.
Raw ballot data is here:
http://www.acgov.org/rov/rcv/results/OaklandMayor/ballot_image.txt
http://www.acgov.org/rov/rcv/results/OaklandMayor/master_lookup.txt
http://www.acgov.org/rov/rcv/results/ballot_image_help.pdf
Here is the Condorcet matrix from these data files (entries are the
number preferring the row candidate over the column candidate). If
your email program doesn't handle HTML tables very well, this might
be scrambled.
what a minute Bob, just comparing the Perata/Quan race, it appears
that your totals are off by about 10000, when you compare to that
DemoChoice results at
http://www.demochoice.org/dcresults.php?poll=OakMayor&type=table .
the IRV final round should be precisely the pair of numbers you get in
the Condorcet matrix (why the hell did that format get used?, it
should be a triangle so that the relevant numbers sit side-by-side).
you have
Quan 53778
Perata 51720
whereas the IRV round-by-round results are
Quan 43825
Perata 41949
so what gives? that's a pretty big discrepancy.
--
r b-j r...@audioimagination.com
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
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--
Bob Richard
Executive Vice President
Californians for Electoral Reform
PO Box 235
Kentfield, CA 94914-0235
415-256-9393
http://www.cfer.org
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