> Message: 1 > Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 22:17:49 +0200 > From: Juho <[email protected]> > To: Election Methods <[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [EM] breakdown of Oakland mayor ballots > Message-ID: <[email protected]> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; Format="flowed"; > DelSp="yes" > > - I decoded the ballot images few days ago since there was some > interest on the rangevoting list => > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RangeVoting/message/14474 > > - Warren Smith wrote down some notes on the results => > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RangeVoting/message/14483
Looks like IRV lucked out and dodged a bullet for a change when it differed from plurality for the first time in San Francisco and got it right. As Warren Smith points out, if a little over 3,100 more voters had ranked Kaplan 1st and Quan 2nd, Perata dead last, then Perata would have won instead. We won't have to wait long until IRV gets it wrong when it differs from plurality voting, according to the odds Warren calculates. http://rangevoting.org/Oakland2010Mayor.html explains. Juho's data processing appears to be correct. Quan was the Condorcet and IRV winner. Perata was the plain plruality winner. PARADOX: If 3135 extra Kaplan>Quan>...>Perata votes are added, all ranking Perata dead last and Quan 2nd, that causes Perata to (then) win. It is fortunate for them that those Perata-hating voters stayed home! -------- IRV is is hardly worth all the extra costs and complexity and lack of auditability when the chance is so high of not getting a good outcome like this whenever the result differs from plurality. Kathy Dopp http://electionmathematics.org Town of Colonie, NY 12304 "One of the best ways to keep any conversation civil is to support the discussion with true facts." Fundamentals of Verifiable Elections http://kathydopp.com/wordpress/?p=174 Realities Mar Instant Runoff Voting http://electionmathematics.org/ucvAnalysis/US/RCV-IRV/InstantRunoffVotingFlaws.pdf View some of my research on my SSRN Author page: http://ssrn.com/author=1451051 ---- Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
