Temperature rise is always an exponential curve.

I've looked and looked for a means of predicting
steady-state temperature during the initial rise
of temperature from the "cold" state.  It can't
be done.

Once the data is reasonably complete, one can
determine the constants for the curve.
 
Because temperature rise is exponential, the 
temperature never achieves steady-state no
matter how long the test is run.  Of course, 
eventually the temperature change approaches 
infinitesimally small.

I don't like steady-state determinations such as 
degrees change per time interval.  If the part in 
question has a small thermal mass, or has a high 
thermal resistance, the temperature may never 
achieve a change of less than 1 C (or 1 K) 
regardless of the time interval.  Just the 
circulation of air will prevent a "steady state." 

I like to plot the curve as the part heats.  As
the curve flattens, you know that you are approaching
the maximum temperature.  And, you immediately know
whether or not the temperature, regardless of time,
will exceed the maximum allowable temperature 
(unless, of course, the temperature is borderline 
to the maximum).  (With today's data loggers, 
plotting a curve is quite easy, and doesn't require
manpower to record each data point.)

If the curve is well below the limit, then there
is no need to be precise about a steady-state
temperature.  Likewise, if the curve is above the
limit.  The only case where steady-state temperature
is critical is when the steady-state is very close
to the maximum temperature.

So, the standards are quite arbitrary as to what
temperature change in what time interval comprises
steady-state.  Just follow the standard.  If there
is no definition of steady state, then plot the 
curve along with the limit line.


Best regards,
Rich

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