Bob,
Again the question is can you correlate the tree ring data with
increased CO2 emissions while filtering out the impacts of El Nino,
sunspot activity, etc?
Mike
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of [email protected]
Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 7:49 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [ENTS] Re: High elevation forest response to
climate change and other factors
Don, Mike,
Our own Dr. David Stahle, Lord of the Rings, has
confirmed many instances of climate impact observable in the tree rings.
His work studying the El Nino oscillation cycle has been well received
within the scientific community. Dave will be one of the presenters at
the Forest Summit - Old Growth conference in October at Holyoke
Community College. Drs. Lee Frelich, David Foster, Don Bragg will also
present.
Bob
----- Original Message -----
From: "DON BERTOLETTE" <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Sent: Tuesday, June 2, 2009 10:49:52 PM GMT -05:00
US/Canada Eastern
Subject: [ENTS] Re: High elevation forest response to
climate change and other factors
Mike-
I don't pretend to know much about NIPF in
Massachusetts.
I don't think you have ever read me saying the phrase
global warming. I know that to be a loaded concept that hasn't been
universally accepted.
But I do believe that the regions I've worked and lived
in are experiencing climate change outside of the natural range of
climate variation.
Yes, actually there is tree ring documentation to that
effect. Dendrochronology started with a man named Douglas at the
Flagstaff Observatory (the one that discovered "canals" on Mars), and
was furthered in partnership with early archeologist Emil Haury when
they discovered missing tree ring segments in Anastazi roofing
timbers...there are some really intereseting regional climate graphs
that have been derived from dendrochronological research carried on at
the University of Arizona at their Tree Ring Lab ('google' Tom Swetnum
for a broad coverage of just about everything I've said).
I do however have a fair handle on forestry in the
Southwest US. I can send you any number of supporting documents
regarding my statements below. I stand behind my statement that all five
of those points are inter-related, not separated as they were in your
reply. Deconstruction doesn't work that way.
Regarding your comments on bio-fuels, you may be
surprised that I've supported it, particularly in the Southwest, and
with smaller more efficient operations. For much of the ponderosa pine
forests, conditions (4 of 5 points below) have led to abundant smallwood
that despite multiple efforts, no commercial operations can handle.
More acres of controlled burning occur than should (difficult not to
exceed air quality regulations), and running it as bio-fuel through an
efficient energy generation plant was a solution being sought in
Northern Arizona. Finding the balance between constant, consistent,
regular source in the amounts appropriate for the energy generated was
the key, that and being located centrally to the source. The small wood
fuels are abundant and burgeoning.
-Don
From: [email protected]
To: [email protected]
Subject: [ENTS] Re: High elevation forest response to
climate change and other factors
Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2009 16:41:24 -0400
Don,
How do you know that the current drought in the west is
the worst since 600 AD? Tree ring data?
I would say that unnatural fire suppression has led to
invading white fir regeneration and above normal ponderosa pine
regeneration as well as much of the bark beetle outbreaks. Blaming it
all on global warming is bunk.
Mike
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of DON BERTOLETTE
Sent: Monday, June 01, 2009 4:06 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [ENTS] RE: High elevation
forest response to climate change and other factors
Lee-
Yes, these instances are almost always
not a single cause issue...in the case of higher than normal mortality
of old-growth ponderosa pine forests on the North Rim at Grand Canyon,
it was a combination of:
1) altered natural fire regime,
2) invading white fir regeneration,
competing with
3) above normal ponderosa pine
regeneration,
4) 15 years of drought (not seen this
long or serious since 600 AD),
4) causing moisture/nutrient stress on
large old ponderosa pines.
Here in Alaska, I was around when spruce
bark beetle began a run that seemed stoppable at first, but in
retrospect, could have only been stopped by a succession of two or three
cold winters...we never got them and some 90% of Kenai Peninsula spruce
(and significant interior populations) were wiped out.
I have had several conversations with
Southwestern academics who are beginning to sense the migration of
species to more appropriate latitudes, elevations. It's apparent that
just a few degrees annual change in temperature has a surprisingly
significant effect on a whole array of ecosystem constituents.
-Don
> Date: Mon, 1 Jun 2009 07:53:56 -0500
> From: [email protected]
> To: [email protected]
> Subject: [ENTS] Re: ENTS in the news
>
>
> Bob, Don:
>
> Whitebark pine forests/woodlands are
having a set complex set of
> problems. White pine blister rust (an
exotic disease), mountain pine
> beetle (a native beetle that is in
outbreak phase in many forests), and
> changing climate all at once. This is
affecting the relationship between
> white bark pine and lodegepole pine as
well, perhaps the beetle, blister
> rust and droughts are helping the
lodgepole to move into whitebark's
> territory, while lower down the beetle
is causing major mortality in
> lodgepole and ponderosa pines. I am on
the committees of three graduate
> students who are studying whitebark
pine and other high elevation
> forests in the Rocky Mountains, and
two of them will finish soon, so you
> will see several papers on this topic
be published in the next couple of
> years.
>
> Lee
>
>
> [email protected] wrote:
> >
> > Don,
> >
> >
> >
> > As best as I remember from my
travels last summer to Idaho, the
> > white bark pine was having problems
in parts of Wyoming. But, I mostly
> > saw lodgepole pine and wasn't always
conscious when there was a mix of
> > the two species.
> >
> > I'll get up to altitudes of 11,000
to almost 11,500 feet going
> > across some of the Colorado passes.
In southern Colorado, the
> > timberline is between 11,500 and
12,000 feet. So, I should see plenty
> > of high elevation forests and will
dutifully report on what I see. I
> > remember from 3 years ago going
across Wolf Creek Pass in the San
> > Juans seeing lots of beetle damage
to ponderosa pines. Pines I had
> > seen in the mid-1980s were dead. It
was a sad sight.
> >
> > BTW, I'll be tracking my emails on
the trip with my IPhone. I broke
> > down and bought one, and so far, I
love it. Apple has really thought
> > through the features. Most are
intuitive and even though the monitor
> > is small, I can still see it. You
can expand the print in a simple way.
> >
> >
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "DON BERTOLETTE"
<[email protected]>
> > To: [email protected]
> > Sent: Sunday, May 31, 2009 5:06:02
PM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern
> > Subject: [ENTS] Re: ENTS in the news
> >
> > Bob-
> > In the west in general and surely in
Colorado, the media I attend to
> > describes the plight of the high
elevation forests, particularly the
> > pines, in (what our fellow forum
member Steve Springer denies) at
> > least a severe prolonged drought,
and perhaps one of the signs of
> > global climate change. Gradient
analysis may not benefit much of the
> > eastern forest, but for the western
forests where a watershed may
> > contain an entire elevational
gradient, forests are differentially
> > subject to moisture stress, and are
showing higher mortality than
> > would be found in the natural range
of variation.
> > If your travels take you into the
higher elevations where whitebark
> > pines are found, I'd be interested
in a first hand account of their
> > general health. The high elevation
pines I've followed in the high
> > Sierras (foxtail, bristlecone,
whitebark, sugar, western white) are
> > taking a hit, with potential
catastrophy waiting with each monsoonal
> > wave of lightning storms, due to
increased downed and coarse woody debris.
> >
> > In two weeks, I'll be assisting a
friend in nominating a Kenai Birch
> > for the Alaska Register, and since
the National Register doesn't list
> > one, perhaps we'll be nominating a
National champion!
> > -Don
> >
> >
------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > Date: Sun, 31 May 2009 19:38:23
+0000
> > From: [email protected]
> > To: [email protected]
> > Subject: [ENTS] Re: ENTS in the news
> >
> > Don,
> >
> > The day will come when AFs will be
lauding the Pennsylvania and
> > Alaska champion tree programs - and
for good reason. Well, tomorrow,
> > it is off to Colorado Monica and I
go. I hope to report from the field
> > as I go.
> >
> > Bob
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "DON BERTOLETTE"
<[email protected]>
> > To: [email protected]
> > Sent: Sunday, May 31, 2009 12:05:04
AM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern
> > Subject: [ENTS] ENTS in the news
> >
> > Fellow ENTS-
> > Just received the current American
Forests, and saving the best for
> > last, they had a great article
applauding Bob Van Pelt's (and ours
> > too!) obsession with champion
trees...it's a good read!
> > -Don
> >
> >
> >
> >
------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
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Don't worry about storage limits.
> > Check it out.
> >
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> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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