James Lovelock, the originator and main proponent of the Gaia Theory
has developed several mathematical models which all the user to model
the temperature regulation of the Earth. In "Daisyworld" thermal
regulation is simplified so that the user can study the effects of
modified dark daisies (low albedo), light daisies (high albedo),
luminosity of the sun, volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic aerosols,
and the amount of Earth's surface taken off "autopoeisis" and
converted to the agricultural biome (ie. artificial system with no
natural selection). As the modeler increases the amount of artificial
cover and therefore reduces the amount of natural cover (which is
capable of thermal regulation through stochasitic processes) Earth
gets to a point where the thermal regulation breaks down and a
positive feedback loop creates a runaway global warming scenario.
Note that there is no teleology in this model.
This makes absolute sense to me. Natural systems are complex,
adaptive systems that have the capability to maintain stability in
some dimensions and respond quickly to disturbances with inertia,
resistance, and resilience. Just compare how an old growth forest and
a cornfield respond to a relentless pathogen or drought. How much
homeostatic regulation are vast agricultural fields capable of? Their
genetic diversity is extremely limited and humans decide which
genotypes and therefore phenotypes will persist. If humans can't
manage a forest in a sustainable way with some autopoietic
characteristics, how are we going to MANage the surface of the entire
Earth when the collective wisdom of over 30 million species is reduced
to a few generalists that can live under the yoke of mass consumerism,
urban sprawl, toxic waste,etc.
Gary
On Oct 25, 2009, at 7:49 PM, Gary A. Beluzo wrote:
> Joe,
>
> It will adapt: specialists will become extinct as habitats are
> simplified by humans and niches are eliminated. Generalists will do
> well and as the surface of Earth becomes increasingly more human
> dominated we will reach a point where large negative feedback loops
> will collapse positive feedback will amplify our actions and the
> environment will become so simplified that the complex, adaptive way
> of Nature will give way to Homeorrhetic Engineering at a planetary
> level. At that point the entire surface of Earth will become
> artificial ("0" degree of naturalness because all control and
> regulation will be in the hands of one conscious species.and natural
> selection will have ended.
>
> I am glad I won't be here when that happens.
>
> Gary
>
>
>
>
>
> On Oct 25, 2009, at 12:45 PM, Joseph Zorzin wrote:
>
>> Lee, if all humans vanished, I suppose it could easily recover
>> fairly quickly (in geologic time) but since we aren't disappearing
>> and our numbers and our demands on the Earth's resources are
>> increasing - how can the Earth adapt to us?
>> Joe
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Lee Frelich
>> To: [email protected]
>> Sent: Sunday, October 25, 2009 12:42 PM
>> Subject: [ENTS] Re: Autopoietic Forests and Forest Patch Management
>>
>>
>> Joe:
>>
>> Yes, but the time scale will be on the order of several million
>> years.
>> That might seem long to us, but it is very short compared to the
>> length
>> of time life has been present on the earth.
>>
>> Lee
>>
>> Joseph Zorzin wrote:
>> > the fundamental question - can the Earth ever recover from the
>> comet
>> > like impact of humans and be as great as it once was?
>> >
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > *From:* Lee Frelich <mailto:[email protected]>
>> > *To:* [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]
>> >
>> > *Sent:* Sunday, October 25, 2009 11:49 AM
>> > *Subject:* [ENTS] Re: Autopoietic Forests and Forest Patch
>> Management
>> >
>> >
>> > Gary, Ed:
>> >
>> > As Ed points the autopoietic concept and preservation concept
>> have
>> > problems in terms of defining what indirect effects of people
>> are
>> > allowed for a system to still be considered autopoietic. The
>> indirect
>> > effects that are allowed or not allowed then lead to all
>> sorts of
>> > logic
>> > problems with temporal and spatial scale as it relates to
>> > preservation.
>> >
>> > For example, if autopoiesis includes watching how collective
>> DNA
>> > of the
>> > species within the preserved area responds to loss of species
>> due to
>> > introduced diseases and pests, then small areas could be
>> autopoietic,
>> > but if it does not include those indirect effects, then no
>> area is
>> > big
>> > enough to be autopoietic (or to be preserved), since no size
>> > ensures the
>> > absence of invasive tree diseases and pests.
>> >
>> > The temporal scale problem is equally large. Given many
>> thousands or
>> > millions of years, all systems will respond and adapt to non
>> native
>> > species, climate change and loss of the species that
>> initially were
>> > native. The introduction of invasive species, tree pests and
>> > diseases,
>> > and global warming become a small blip in time, and all systems
>> > would be
>> > autopoietic. If defined on a time scale of a few centuries,
>> > however, all
>> > systems would lose autopoeisis, regardless of size, given the
>> > onslaught
>> > of invasive species and global warming.
>> >
>> > Its always the temporal and spatial scale issues that are so
>> > difficult
>> > with any new concept in ecology. It took me 2 years to work
>> through
>> > those issues for the neighborhood effect hypothesis of forest
>> > dynamics
>> > before I was happy enough with the concept to publish it.
>> >
>> > If people are interested in preserving the last natural
>> systems as
>> > they
>> > are right now, then there is no spatial or temporal scale at
>> which
>> > autopoesis or preservation will
>> > work without a lot of management outside of the 'preserved'
>> areas to
>> > keep out all invasive species and stop global warming.
>> >
>> > Lee
>> >
>> >
>> > >
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
> >
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