On Wednesday, October 2, 2002, at 08:00 AM, Joe B. wrote: > So I what I'm after is other peoples' feelings on the probable life > expectancy of the EOS system, and whether this is a good time to > switch. My assumption (but that is all it is) is that there wil > continue to be new EOS digital SLRs for some years yet to use the EOS > lenses, and that the image quality available will be very high, and > that buying into the EOS system now would be a rational move. If that > is so then I could get an EOS system now with my most basic needs- > which would probably be a 1n, a 24, 50 and an 85 or 100 and then I > could buy more lenses as I go on, and seriously consider a digital > body when the current high end quality comes in a body that costs > around $1000, which I'm guessing would be in a couple of years time. > Does this make sense? Any stabs at predicting the future of EOS would > be most helpful.
IMHO, the biggest potential challenge that the EOS system has faced over the past couple years has been the challenge of building a full-frame digital sensor -- if that had proved to be difficult or impossible, then the lifetime of the system would probably have been limited. Since there are now three full-frame 35mm systems announced or shipping (Contax, 1Ds, Kodak), and one of them is around $4k, it doesn't appear that building a full-frame 35mm digital sensor is going to be a major problem in the future. Odds are, in 2-3 years, we'll have D60-sized sensors for around $1k and full-frame sensors for $2-3k. Given that, I don't see any obvious reason for the EOS system, and particularly EF lenses, to be replaced within the next 10-20 years. The basic mount seems to be holding up well, it seems flexible enough to handle everything new that's been thrown at it over the last decade or so, it doesn't suffer from a lack of available pins or power. It seems close to an ideal 35mm AF lens mount, although I'm probably not really qualified to judge that :-). The big competition will probably be smaller, cheaper 4/3" SLRs. Their sensor is a bit smaller then the D60, but not overwhelmingly so (2.0 vs 1.6 w/ 35mm lenses), and it's still quite a bit bigger then most of the P&S cameras. I'm kind of irritated that they're building an SLR, rather then a semi-rangefinder, but maybe someone'll fill that gap eventually. I'd be kind of nifty to see a small interchangable-lens digital camera that'll take a 8-10mm lens, producing the equivalent of a <20mm 35mm lens. It'd be rather nice for street photography. In general, with this sort of market, competition comes from lower-end products growing up-market, rather then more expensive products getting cheaper. Given that, *if* the 4/3 people can get their act together and start shipping products, then they *might* be able to eat most of the amateur 35mm SLR market. That'd leave Canon and Nikon, with their 35mm-ish digital SLRs stranded without a low end, relegated to the professional market. Fortunately, the laws of optics, combined with Moore's law *should* always give larger-sensor cameras a quality advantage, while keeping the cost premium from getting too out of hand. Scott * **** ******* *********************************************************** * For list instructions, including unsubscribe, see: * http://www.a1.nl/phomepag/markerink/eos_list.htm ***********************************************************
