On 2 Oct 02 at 8:56, Scott Laird wrote:
>
> On Wednesday, October 2, 2002, at 08:00 AM, Joe B. wrote:
> > So I what I'm after is other peoples' feelings on the probable life
> > expectancy of the EOS system, and whether this is a good time to
> > switch. My assumption (but that is all it is) is that there wil
> > continue to be new EOS digital SLRs for some years yet to use the EOS
> > lenses, and that the image quality available will be very high, and
> > that buying into the EOS system now would be a rational move. If that
> > is so then I could get an EOS system now with my most basic needs-
> > which would probably be a 1n, a 24, 50 and an 85 or 100 and then I
> > could buy more lenses as I go on, and seriously consider a digital
> > body when the current high end quality comes in a body that costs
> > around $1000, which I'm guessing would be in a couple of years time.
> > Does this make sense? Any stabs at predicting the future of EOS would
> > be most helpful.
>
> IMHO, the biggest potential challenge that the EOS system has faced
> over the past couple years has been the challenge of building a
> full-frame digital sensor -- if that had proved to be difficult or
> impossible, then the lifetime of the system would probably have been
> limited. Since there are now three full-frame 35mm systems announced
> or shipping (Contax, 1Ds, Kodak), and one of them is around $4k, it
> doesn't appear that building a full-frame 35mm digital sensor is going
> to be a major problem in the future. Odds are, in 2-3 years, we'll
> have D60-sized sensors for around $1k and full-frame sensors for $2-3k.
The dilemma for Joe is that by that time, Minolta will probably join
the bandwagon too, and at that point probably with a fullframe
sensor, for only US$500 premium, just like all others.
Hence it's not so much a question *whether* Minolta will offer one,
but whether it will be in time for Joe, and whether it will please
enough of the remaining/not-yet-switched-over Minolta-AF
photographers to keep Minolta alive.
But then again, Minolta's camera/lens department is probably a just
as small part of the entire Minolta (office) product range as is Canon, so
they will keep the camera brand as an imago carrier for quite a bit
longer than it is profitable. Nikon has a much worser portfolio in
this respect.
[*] don't eliminate those who still use an old manual set from
whatever brand, and hold off until they really must switch, perhaps
dabbling with cheaper digicams currently, for the time being.
Brand preferences can stick longer than one generation too....
--
Bye,
Willem-Jan Markerink
The desire to understand
is sometimes far less intelligent than
the inability to understand
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
[note: 'a-one' & 'en-el'!]
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