> From: "Branden R. Williams" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Subject: Re: EOS Canon Prices go down > > On Thu, 11 Sep 2003 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > > > the late comers (who called them 'mature' consumers??) step in. That > > Heh we crazy american marketing students. Every market has 4 stages. > Early Adopters, Growth, Maturity, and Decline (think bell curve). I would > consider those markets for 10D and 1Ds at the Mature stage as early > adoption and growth has already happened. I'll get into a digital body > one of these days very soon now.... :P
The stage model you mention does not actually describe markets, but more accurately describes adoption rates of products and technologies relative to product life cylce or market share. Thus it more usefully indicates, based on the shape of the curve, which prospective customers are likely to buy, based on their past buying history, and thus, how to sell to them; selling to early adopters is very different from selling to late adopters. FYI, the curve is not always bell-shaped; adoption curve for automobiles spiked up early and has remained level for a long time instead of dropping off, because there are few good alternatives that people have adopted. For example, CMOS imaging sensors are still low/early in market saturuation relative to CCD sensors. So, if Canon were to license it's CMOS technology, it might first target camera makers who have, in the past, taken more risks in technology (i.e. Sigma, if the Foveon sensor does not start to take off soon). Late adopters among camera makers ( like Minolta, Pentax, etc.) will stick with CCDs for a while yet, making them less likely to buy CMOS, and thus deserving of less sales effort in the short term. So, a technology adoption curve tell you where and when to spend your time and money when selling, not if/when prices will fall (prices may go up at the end of a product/technology life, if demand exceeds supply, like vintage or limited production cars). For more info, see "Crossing the Chasm" by Geoffrey A. Moore... http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0066620023/002-1495401-7310404?v=glance and reviewed at http://www.testing.com/writings/reviews/moore-chasm.html. I'm a tech sales guy as well as photographer.... [EMAIL PROTECTED] * **** ******* *********************************************************** * For list instructions, including unsubscribe, see: * http://www.a1.nl/phomepag/markerink/eos_list.htm ***********************************************************
