On Sat, 21 Dec 2002, Aleta Jackson wrote:
> > Ouch. That seems to be a common mistake, doesn't it...
>
> ...We all _know_ three tail numbers are ideal but when you
> have just enough for one, you do the best you can with that one.
Agreed. There is a difference, perhaps subtle but significant, between a
mistake and a risky choice. The former is something that's definitely a
bad idea, the latter has disadvantages but can nevertheless still be the
appropriate course.
In this particular matter, you've got a three-way choice:
1. Pay what it costs to build two or (preferably) three tail numbers; or
2. Have reserves to cover unexpected downtime on the one and only; or
3. Accept that the project has a low probability of success, because your
first significant accident will probably end it.
The mistake is not building only one tail number, but kidding yourself
about the inverse relation between margins and probability of success.
Henry Spencer
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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