Henry Spencer wrote:
In this particular matter, you've got a three-way choice:
1. Pay what it costs to build two or (preferably) three tail numbers; or
2. Have reserves to cover unexpected downtime on the one and only; or
3. Accept that the project has a low probability of success, because your first significant accident will probably end it.
The mistake is not building only one tail number, but kidding yourself
about the inverse relation between margins and probability of success.
Hmm. Perhaps 2 could be restated as, "For each stage, balance expected progress against expected cost of progress, such that the amount of money you will have will build a sufficient reserve in case you have more downtime than you expect." _______________________________________________ ERPS-list mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://lists.erps.org/mailman/listinfo/erps-list
