Robert (or maybe Larry) writes:
> I suspect I'd lean towards a mass-driver + small rocket combination
> before I'd go with a space elevator.  The nice thing about
> robotic missions is that they can be hurled off a mass-driver
> at much higher velocity (due to higher G-force acceleration)
> than can be done with human missions.....

> I've never seen to date any estimates for what it would take in
> terms of a mass driver that could launch 100 tons with the velocity
> of a Saturn V 1st stage but I would like to know.  Apparently
> the Saturn V 1st stage puts out enough power to power NYC for several
> minutes so one would probably need several nuclear reactors to power
> the mass driver.

A rocket launcher has very high short-term energy expenditure in
part because it's mostly lifting its own fuel for most of the burn.
A terrestrial mass driver is pushing little more than the payload
itself, which makes a huge difference in the energy requirements.

One of the more elegant (but, it turns out, somewhat persnickety)
gun-type launch systems I've looked into, the ram accelerator,
stores all its fuel in the launch tube itself.  It's a fair amount of
fuel (various mixtures at pressures on the order of 40 atmospheres)
in a long launch tube, but the total energy requirement is quite modest.

Energy isn't really a cost issue for launch -- it's said that the Shuttle
could power a medium-size town for the minutes that it's burning
rocket fuel.  That sounds impressive, but if you do the math,
you come up with a dollar amount that would cover the
costs of an only-mildly-lavish wedding reception.  This is not
how all that money is being burned.  If there's a serious
energy cost component in the Shuttle program, it's more in the
gasoline used to fuel the cars of its employees, and the
industrial fuels that make western-style affluence possible.

Engineering a mass driver to push 100 tons to orbit is rather
pointless, actually -- the chief advantage of mass drivers is
the potential for massive throughput, not high payload mass.
If you can launch 200 lbs to orbit at $200/lb, every few
days, many problems simply go away.  On-orbit construction
of 100-ton packages is mainly held back by the cost of putting
construction equipment, teleoperators, and people into orbit.
Putting people up will always be expensive (until gizmos
like the Space Elevator come along, anyway), but when
you look at how much of a human being's space-survival
infrastructure outweighs the person, and think about how
it might be redesigned to survive very high accelerations,
the arguments for going multimodal in space transportation
(if other, much cheaper, non-man-rated modes can be
made to work), appear very compelling.

Also, with mass drivers and space elevators, it's not an
either-or proposition.  Mass drivers, used to get
a bootstrap quantity of carbon nanotube ribbon up
geosynch orbit, may in fact end up being a prerequisite
technology more than a competing one.

In any case, the capital requirements are daunting, and
there's the question of market.  There are lots of ideas
for how to make space transportation much cheaper,
in some very long run -- "take my plan and add $50 billion."
As Gerard O'Neill pointed out, until you squeeze all the
technical risk out of these proposals, it hardly matters that
you might ultimately be able to produce clean power from
space more cheaply than any energy technology on Earth.
The Panama Canal was just a big digging project;
the main technological breakthrough that made it
possible was the discovery of quinine as a treatment
for malaria.  Space transportation faces much more
serious challenges, in both technological and market
terms.

-michael turner
[EMAIL PROTECTED]


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