I'm surprised that it wasn't obvious that the availability of OEM EVs like
the Leaf would drastically reduce conversions. I recall discussions with
this conclusion when the Leaf first became available.  There is no way you
can do a conversion with the fit and finish, interior space, range, power,
and quality and reliability of a Leaf for similar cost (after the $7500
credit).  The 80kW peak AC motor/controller would cost you almost as much as
the Leaf.  A conversion using a series DC motor would cost almost as much as
a Leaf since a 24 kWh LiFePO4 pack would cost around $10k delivered, and you
wouldn't have the same quality or fit and finish. 

As for feeling sorry for ourselves as unappreciated pioneers, rubbish. That
was the whole point of being a pioneer - to show the practicality of EVs and
get more on the road.  I want to see more ice vehicles replaced with
electric or some other clean technology on a large scale, and that requires
OEM vehicles sold by the millions.  I was happy to see all those OEM
vehicles at NPD - we even had a Fisker Karma (I think the (23"?) wheels and
tires for that car probably cost more than my battery pack).  I also enjoyed
looking over the new cars and talking with their owners about them.  One guy
was so enthusiastic, I was ready to buy a Leaf after talking to him!  And
they ARE pioneers relative to most people.

At least in my experience, there is not that much difference in reliability. 
I've not experienced much down time with my EV over the last 4 years, and it
has never failed out on the road.  Of course reliability of conversions
varies widely, depending on quality of components and work.

I think there will still be people doing conversions as a hobby project, but
fewer as OEM prices decrease.  I think people will make use of junkyard
parts to cobble together a lower cost EV, or buy two wrecked Leafs to make
one, much like some currently do with ice vehicles, and about on the same
scale, but it will take several years before many are available.

Definitely a different situation now, and that's a good thing.



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