Production from conventional oil fields worldwide is declining at 4% to 6% per year. In 2012 global production from these fields was 67 million barrels per day. In 2035 it will be less than 25 million barrels per day if it continues to decline at that rate. The U.S alone uses 18 - 20 million barrels per day depending on the economy. In the last few years this decline was compensated by increased production from the bitumen of Canada and Venezuala, and tight oil from the Bakken in ND and the Eagleford in TX. But these are only economical at higher oil prices, and the decline rates of tight oil wells are very high, with production down by over 90% in 3 years on average. These fields have limited area of "sweet spots" where production is higher, and these areas have been mostly drilled, with most new wells being sunk in less productive parts of the field - until the downturn in oil prices. In contrast, production from conventional fields held fairly steady for decades. In recent years oil companies started moving into natural gas because of low discovery rates of new oil fields even with record spending for exploration. Now of course they have decreased expenditures even further due to low oil prices and talk to investors about the resources they have rather than reserves. Resources are a WAG about how much oil might be in place in a field, whereas reserves are "proven" in the sense that some wells have been drilled in the field showing there is oil there and estimating total possible production from the production rates of those wells. It is highly unlikely we can supply the 80 - 90 million barrels of oil per day (and growing) used globally with biofuels. We would be wise to be saving oil for more critical uses rather than driving passenger cars long distance.
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