Michael Ross via EV wrote:
The context of these comments it the idea that stored electric power in
batteries can take over from fossil fuel energy; and that the capability in
batteries is "there." I don't believe it.
Let's see... Wikipedia says the 2016 peak CA load was 46,232 Mw on July
27 (and it's been going DOWN in each successive year). The California
Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) established an energy storage target
of 1,325 MWH by 2020 (2 years from now). That would support about 3% of
the peak load for an hour. Presumably, that would be enough to cover the
Therefore, *batteries are not "there."* Nor will they be there any time
soon. *If you run the numbers,* instead of just wishing, it is unlikely
grid storage can be done at all with batteries alone. It will require
other very significant storage tech.
Cleantechnia.com says there are about 250,000 EVs in CA as of 1/20/2017.
If each had a 25kwh battery pack and P2G charger, they would provide
6,250 MWH of storage. That's several times more than what CPUC is
proposing. So it looks like enough battery capacity is already "there"
on the streets. They just have to find a way to harvest it.
Even supplying cells for more than a million cars is not currently possible.
That does not sound quite right. First, let's just look at dumb old
lead-acids: They are the most-used battery for EVs (since industrial EVs
and golf carts exceed the number of on-road auto company EVs). There are
already over a BILLION cars on the planet, and every one has a lead-acid
battery. We add another 50 million cars per year, and every one of them
adds another battery as well. When you add the lead-acid batteries
produced for other applications, they are building over 100 million
lead-acid batteries a year.
Manufacturers could easily produce 10% more per year. That's 10 million
extra batteries, which could produce a million EVs with (say) ten golf
cart battery-size packs each.
A similar situation exists if you want to use lithium cells. They are
already being mass-produced for laptops, cellphones, and many other
consumer gadgets. This market dwarfs the EV market! Last year, 3 billion
cellphones, and 100 million laptops were sold. In excess of 50
gigawatthours of lithium cells were produced for them. If we assume an
EV needs 25 kilowatthours of battery, that's enough to make 2 million
EVs right there. Factories already under construction are expected to
double producion in just 2 years.
So lack of batteries is not going to hold back EVs. It's more likely
that sales will be limited by consumer demand and the high prices the
auto companies are charging.
Whether we or our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all
our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory,
and a sterner sense of justice than we do. -- Wendell Berry
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)