On 2 Aug 2019 at 20:24, Larry Gales via EV wrote:

> Those sound like real world solutions to me 

I totally agree!  You're describing a Tesla.  

But that's my perspective and yours, not the average US vehicle buyer's.

The problem is that Americans overwhelmingly buy SUVs and crossovers, partly 
because that's what Americans overwhelmingly buy.  :-\

They also buy them because Americans buy, collect, and move around a heck of 
a lot of stuff, and SUVs and crossovers can carry a lot of stuff.  

Now Tesla has the Model X for them.  Are Americans buying Model Xs?

An X has 26 cubic feet of cargo capacity with all 5 seats in place, and an 
EPA interior volume volume of 120 cubic feet.  It will go 238 miles (75D) or 
295 miles (100D) between charging stops..

A typical Model X price (100D) is $96k, though maybe if you twisted both 
Musk's arms he'd deign to sell you the cheap model (75D) at ~$80k.  

In 2018, Americans bought 26,100 Model Xs.

A Jeep Cherokee, in about the same size class as an X,  has 36 cubic feet of 
cargo capacity with all 5 seats in place, and an EPA interior volume of 
140.5 cubic feet.  It will go 615 miles between refueling stops.

A typical Cherokee price is $41,200, but you can buy a basic model for 
$34,245.

In 2018, Americans bought 239,437 Cherokees.

To sum up, here is why Americans bought 817% more Cherokees than Model Xs in 
2018.

38% more cargo space
17% more interior volume
108% - 158% more range (that is, 2.1 to 2.6 times as far between stops)
57% cheaper

That's the stuff that Americans care about.  They don't give a hoot about 
MPG or CO2 emissions.  By their standards, their big, overstuffed ICE-SUVs 
are comfortable enough, safe enough, and quiet enough.  They handle well 
enough, and accelerate briskly enough.  And the total cost of ownership just 
isn't something they think much about when they're sitting in the auto 
dealer listening to the salesman's pitch.

A Tesla offers lots more prestige than a Jeep.  That appeals to certain 
kinds of wealthy people.  But then, so does a Range Rover.  

A Tesla offers way more advanced technology than a Jeep.  That appeals to 
people like us, and to highly educated people in the high-tech world. 

For the average suburban family with an average income and average 
education, the Jeep (or a Ford Escape, or Chevy Traverse, or Hyundai Santa 
Fe, or you name it) is good enough, and it costs less - a lot less.  

That's the bottom line.

EVs are mechanically simpler, so IMO they SHOULD cost less to buy for a 
given level of utiity and appointments.  They don't yet.  

Maybe someday the manufacturers will get serious about selling EVs and do 
what they do with newly introduced ICEVs:  sell them at a loss until they 
get popular.  When that happens, maybe Americans will start to buy more Evs 
than they do ICEVs.  We're not there yet.  

But a lot of things could change in the next few years.  The US is on the 
verge of starting another shooting war in the Mideast, which would probably 
cause oil prices to jump.  Especially if it affected the QUANTITY of fuel 
available, that might suddenly make EVs a real world solution for lots more 
people.

Chinese and/or Indian EV manufacturers could flood the US with decent, 
affordable EVs.  That could further expand EV sales, in the same way that 
the Japanese automakers expanded small, fuel-efficient ICEV sales during the 
mid-1970s Mideast oil crunch..

The mainstream automakers might even get serious about selling EVs, 
regardless of foreign competition.  I don't think that's very likely, 
though.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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