On 9 Sep 2021 at 14:52, Peri Hartman via EV wrote:

> I suspect, the hydrogen storage wont get any smaller whereas we can
> realistically expect the energy density - both by weight and volume -
> to continue to increase for batteries. 

I think that you're right.  

Ten years ago, even 5, FCVs had advantages over BEVs in range and fueling 
speed.  But they've improved only slightly while battery energy density has 
surged.  For example, the 2012 Renault Zoe had a 22 kWh battery and the 
2020/21 has a 52 kWh battery.  Same size battery, 136% more capacity.  And 
the car's curb weight only increased 5%.  

IIRC Toyota has made their FC slightly more efficient, but most of the 
Mirai's modest range gains came from larger tanks.  How much larger can they 
get?  Those tanks are an awkward shape.  Toyota has smart engineers but I'm 
skeptical that they'll fit in much more H2 unless they can find a way to 
shape the tanks more like a gas tank, or even a lithium ion battery.    

So I can see the rest of the FCV range advantage evaporating in a couple of 
years.  With fast charging already touching 300 kW I don't think we're far 
away from a collapse of the FCV fueling speed advantage too.    

What else do FCVs have going for them?  It's sure not easy fueling!  You 
can't find an H2 station in most of the country, and you can't fill up an 
FCV in your garage.  And don't get me started on the difference in 
complexity.   

But Toyota is stubborn, and they seem determined to smear as much lipstick 
as possible on this pig they're riding.  So who knows?  Maybe FCVs will turn 
out like minidisks were 15-20 years ago, fairly big in Japan and mostly a 
non-event elsewhere.

David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it.  Use my 
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt

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