> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jacques Mallah [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
> >self-sampling assumption--what does it mean to say that "I" should reason
> >as if I had an equal probability of being any one of all possible observer-moments?
>     It means - and I admit it does take a little thought here - _I want to
> follow a guessing procedure that, in general, maximizes the fraction of
> those people (who use that procedure) who get the right guess_.  (Why would
> I want a more error-prone method?)  So I use Bayesian reasoning with the
> best prior available, the uniform one on observer-moments, which maximizes
> the fraction of observer-moments who guess right.  No soul-hopping in that
> reasoning, I assure you.

I'm sorry, I still don't see how that applies to me. If I know which observer moments 
I'm in (e.g. I know how old I am) why should I
reason as though I don't?


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