> -----Original Message----- > From: Jacques Mallah [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > >self-sampling assumption--what does it mean to say that "I" should reason > >as if I had an equal probability of being any one of all possible observer-moments? > > It means - and I admit it does take a little thought here - _I want to > follow a guessing procedure that, in general, maximizes the fraction of > those people (who use that procedure) who get the right guess_. (Why would > I want a more error-prone method?) So I use Bayesian reasoning with the > best prior available, the uniform one on observer-moments, which maximizes > the fraction of observer-moments who guess right. No soul-hopping in that > reasoning, I assure you.
I'm sorry, I still don't see how that applies to me. If I know which observer moments I'm in (e.g. I know how old I am) why should I reason as though I don't? Charles
