>Jonathan Colvin writes: >> That's putting it mildly. I was thinking that it is more >likely that a >> universe tunnels out of a black hole that "just randomly" happens to >> contain your precise brain state at that moment, and for all >of future >> eternity. But the majority of these random universes will be >precisely >> that; random. In most cases you will then find that your immortal >> experience is of a purely random universe, which is likely a >good definition of "hell". > >But it's not all that unlikely that someone in the world, >unbeknownst to you, has invented a cure; whereas for a >universe with your exact mind in it to be created purely de >novo is astronomically unlikely. > >Look at the number of atoms in your brain, 10^25 or some such, >and imagine how many arrangments there are of those atoms that >aren't you, compared to the relative few which are you. The >odds against that happening by chance are beyond >comprehension. Whereas the odds of some lucky accident saving >you as you are about to die are more like lottery-winner long, >like one in a billion, not astronomically long, like one in a >googleplex.
I'd say considerably more than one in a billion for a lifespan of even a thousand years. But we are talking *immortality* here (surviving even the heat death of our local universe). At that point the odds must be getting googleplexian... >Especially if you accept that it is possible in principle for >medicine to give us an unlimited healthy lifespan, then all >you really need to do is to live in a universe where that >medical technology is discovered, and then avoid accidents. >Neither one seems all that improbable from the perspective of >people living in our circumstances today. It's harder to see >how a cave man could look forward to a long life span. I thought QTI applied to *any* observer, cave men included. I suppose even a cave man can look forward to long life if a UFO lands and gifts him the technology for life extension. >I should add that I don't believe in QTI, I don't believe that >we are guaranteed to experience such outcomes. I prefer the >observer-moment concept in which we are more likely to >experience observer-moments where we are young and living >within a normal lifespan than ones where we are at a very >advanced age due to miraculous luck. Agreed. Jonathan Colvin