On 21-08-2025 16:35, John Clark wrote:
The problem is electricity, or rather the lack of it.
HAS CHINA WON THE AI RACE ALREADY? [1]
JOHN K CLARK SEE WHAT'S ON MY NEW LIST AT EXTROPOLIS [2]31=
I think everyone has lost or is soon going to lose by making massive
investments in the current extremely inefficient systems. It's the same
story with previous technological innovations all over again:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfN7eFo5cbk&t=736s
Current LLMs are a dead end because reducing errors by a factor of 10
requires a factor of 10^20 more computational power:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjB6HDot1Uk
and we're already starting out from extremely energy inefficient
systems. Note that the human brain runs on just 20 Watts. With current
technology getting to a robot that has similar capabilities as a human
would probably require a lot more than 20 MW. This does mean that a lot
more technological innovation is opposable, so it is actually good news.
But it is bad news for people who have bought into the current AI
systems or have invested in AI companies. That's why I am short Nvidia,
Palantir, Tesla etc. as these are massively overvalued companies.
Take e.g. Tesla's market cap of $1.1 T. This is for a large part just
phantom. No financial institution that can afford to buy all the shares
of Tesla and make it a private company would consider doing that. It's
all good and well to trade Tesla stocks and they do that with a lot of
leverage that is pumping up the price of the stocks and is causing tis
enormous overvaluation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQFQg-9b9EQ&t=1911s
And then you can wait until that leverage falls partially away due to
liquidity drawn away from the stock market to do more important things
that playing games on the stock market, like e.g. having to refinance
debts:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G1i0vstvTo&t=730s
And then the stock price of Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir etc. will slide down
and it will become clear that the multi-trillion-dollar valuations where
all phantom valuations. These companies were never worth that much,
investors who bought into that were participating in a de-facto Ponzi.
Saibal
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