On Sun, Sep 30, 2007 at 10:49:27AM +0200, Günther Greindl wrote:
> Hello all,
> I have always found these doomsday arguments rather strange (and the 
> mathematics, nice as the equations may be, resting on false premises).
> Assuming that OM are distributed unevenly, at the moment you are 
> _living_ an OM you can make absolutely no conclusion about where in the 
> distribution you are - it looks somewhat like "after the fact" reasoning 
> to me.
> But now let us move to Observer Moments (OM):
> You observe:
> "I exist here and now. I know nothing about the OM Distribution, I can 
> only speculate."

In most anthropic arguments, you do know something about the
distribution. Otherwise, as you say, you can only speculate. For
instance in the original Doomsday argument you know the distribution
of birth moments in the past (a relatively slow population increase,
followed by a far more rapid increase in the last two centuries),
therefore you can infer something about the temporal distribution in
the future using the SSA.


A/Prof Russell Standish                  Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
UNSW SYDNEY 2052                         [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Australia                                http://www.hpcoders.com.au

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