Rolf Nelson wrote:
> Your observations to date are consistent with all three models. What
> are the odds that you live in (2) but not (1) or (3)? Surely the
> answer is "extremely high", but how do we justify it *mathematically*
> (and philosophically)?

My current position is, forget the "odds". Let's say there is no odds, 
likelihood, probability, degrees of confidence, what have you, that I live 
in (2) but not (1) or (3). Instead, I'll consider myself as living in all of 
(1), (2), and (3), and whenever I make any decisions, I will consider the 
consequences of my choices on all of these universes. But the end result is 
that I'll still act *as if* I only live in (2) because I simply do not care 
very much about the consequences of my actions in (1) and (3). I don't care 
about (1) and (3) because those universes are too arbitrary or random, and I 
can defend that by pointing to their high algorithmic complexities. So this 
example does not seem to support the notion that the "Measure Problem" needs 
to be solved.

> The "Lottery Problem" would be a problem if I kept winning the lottery
> every day; I'd think something was fishy, and search for an
> explanation besides "blind chance", wouldn't you?

If I kept winning the lottery every day, I would have the following 
thoughts: There are two types of universe where I've won the lottery every 
day, those where there's a reason I've won (e.g., it's rigged to always let 
one person win) and those where there's no reason (i.e. I won them fair and 
square). I am living in universes of both types, but I care much more about 
those of the first type because they have lower algorithmic complexities. 
Therefore I should act as if I'm living in the first type of universe and 
try to find out what the reason is that I've won.

But what if I've won the lottery only once? I'd still be tempted to ask "why 
did I win instead of someone else?" But the above rationale for searching 
for an answer doesn't work, because there is no simpler universe where a 
reason for my winning exists. The "Measure Problem" seems more like this 
situation. In both cases, there is no apparent rationale for asking "why", 
but we are tempted (or even compelled) to do so nevertheless.

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