# Re: What are the consequences of UD+ASSA?

```Rolf Nelson wrote:
> Your observations to date are consistent with all three models. What
> are the odds that you live in (2) but not (1) or (3)? Surely the
> answer is "extremely high", but how do we justify it *mathematically*
> (and philosophically)?```
```
My current position is, forget the "odds". Let's say there is no odds,
likelihood, probability, degrees of confidence, what have you, that I live
in (2) but not (1) or (3). Instead, I'll consider myself as living in all of
(1), (2), and (3), and whenever I make any decisions, I will consider the
consequences of my choices on all of these universes. But the end result is
that I'll still act *as if* I only live in (2) because I simply do not care
very much about the consequences of my actions in (1) and (3). I don't care
about (1) and (3) because those universes are too arbitrary or random, and I
can defend that by pointing to their high algorithmic complexities. So this
example does not seem to support the notion that the "Measure Problem" needs
to be solved.

> The "Lottery Problem" would be a problem if I kept winning the lottery
> every day; I'd think something was fishy, and search for an
> explanation besides "blind chance", wouldn't you?

If I kept winning the lottery every day, I would have the following
thoughts: There are two types of universe where I've won the lottery every
day, those where there's a reason I've won (e.g., it's rigged to always let
one person win) and those where there's no reason (i.e. I won them fair and
square). I am living in universes of both types, but I care much more about
those of the first type because they have lower algorithmic complexities.
Therefore I should act as if I'm living in the first type of universe and
try to find out what the reason is that I've won.

But what if I've won the lottery only once? I'd still be tempted to ask "why
did I win instead of someone else?" But the above rationale for searching
for an answer doesn't work, because there is no simpler universe where a
reason for my winning exists. The "Measure Problem" seems more like this
situation. In both cases, there is no apparent rationale for asking "why",
but we are tempted (or even compelled) to do so nevertheless.

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